History shows that revolutions are most successful when the target society has these problems: a) a decline in the public moral values that once was its strength; b) chaos stimulated by hatred; c) confusion caused by false data; d) the society split into warring factions; e) a convenient, visible target to blame for the current problems; and f) an immediate proximate cause that convinces the public that the revolutionaries have the solution. The 2024 election will be another step in promoting these, same as all the others since the first truly “revolutionary” election of 1992. It was in that year that the Democratic Party first put into action its long-term goal of reducing America to a third-rate socialist nation ruled by oligarchs and their cronies. It was during the Clinton administration that the mainstream media became a subsidiary of the Democratic Party and the federal bureaucracy began to work against the liberties of the people. As the late Peter Jennings (1938-2005) once observed, the mainstream media had replaced news reporting with advocacy.
Here is my opinion on how the Democrats win big in Nov 2024, despite current polls showing that the American people are angry at the Biden administration and local Democratic governments for their failures, corruption, and general incompetence. This is likely to be a coat-tails election; the winning Presidential candidate will induce many victories for those in their party throughout the down-ticket offices, possibly including local offices. Here is my assessment of how the Democrats will operate during this election cycle, and how they win big unless the Republicans and Independents adopt a new way of campaigning. This first essay addresses the respective presidential candidates promoted by the respective parties.
1 The Presidential Candidates
1.1 Democrat Presidential Candidate
It appears at this point that President Biden will run for re-election along with Vice President Kamala Harris, despite their current unpopularity. Actually it doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate for President. They have several strong candidates to replace Biden, should that become politically necessary or advantageous, since Biden can be replaced by the Democratic Party “super delegates” at their Convention under the Democratic Party’s current nominating rules. If so, the most likely replacements are California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, and New York Governor Kathy Hochul. All are known socialists; all have a proven track record of abuse of power during the Wuhan virus pandemic; all have a proven track record of incompetence; and all have been recently re-elected. The second-tier replacements are probably former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and current Vice President Kamala Harris. All seven are carbon copies of Obama and Biden; there will not be a single policy change should any of them replace Biden as the Presidential candidate. Biden is therefore eminently expendable; but whether he will actually be replaced at the Democratic Convention depends on events as yet unforeseen. I suspect the Democratic Party elite would prefer to promote a candidate by which they can pretend a total separation from Biden. That would exclude the last two; but never count out a Clinton when it comes to grasping for power. President Biden is certainly in no legal trouble: he and the mainstream media will continue to cover for him no matter what evidence of bribery, tax evasion, and influence-selling crimes are uncovered. As for his son Hunter Biden, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently stated that the President will not pardon his son. That is correct, most likely because either: a) Joe Biden has already pardoned Hunter and his associates (and himself); he simply hasn’t made it public yet; or b) there is plenty of time to issue the pardons after the election when Jean-Pierre’s comments “are no longer operative”.
1.2 Republican Presidential Candidate
The leading candidate as of now is clearly former President Donald Trump. He remains popular with a large segment of the Republican and Independent voters. However, he will have so many legal problems it will be difficult to run a good campaign (even if he is acquitted or the trials do not begin). If he gets convicted, his support will decline. His remaining competitors are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. The most qualified of the remaining candidates to replace Trump (should he be imprisoned or bogged down in unending court appearances) is Governor DeSantis, but so far his campaign has failed to gain traction. It appears at present that the two most likely to win the nomination in case of President Trump’s absence are Governor Haley followed by Governor Christie. Also, these same two will likely come in second place in various States should Trump be able to continue. Haley and Christie are favored as Republican candidates for President by the New York Times, and thus by the rest of the mainstream media, since: a) they are both known quantities; b) are favorites of the Republican old guard; and c) have policies that are considerably watered down compared to Trump and DeSantis.
Mr. Trump has another difficulty should he be able to continue to run. Recall how Mr. Trump got the nomination in 2016: he ran against a large number of other candidates (upward of 10) and therefore was able to win all the delegates in some States by getting 25 or 30% of the vote. Trump is now running against a much smaller field, and is now faced with the task of getting closer to 40% of the vote, a much different circumstance than in 2016.
On 19 Dec 2023 the Colorado Supreme Court cast Mr. Trump off the Colorado primary ballot on the grounds (in their opinion, without trial) that Mr. Trump led an “insurrection” on 6 Jan 2021, and is therefore disqualified per the 14th Amendment. The same thing was done by the Secretary of State in Maine; again, no trial and no conviction. The interesting thing about these rulings is that it claimed that Mr. Trump is disqualified from being President at all; being cast off the ballot was an incidental consequence. Four other States have already ruled otherwise (at least for the primary). It remains to be seen whether the Colorado and Maine rulings will stand under review by the U. S. Supreme Court. The bigger problem is whether the various States will cast President Trump off the ballot in the general election, should he be the Republican nominee. I suspect that these primary ballot challenges are merely test cases for the real Democratic Party objective if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee: remove him from the general election ballot and force him to run as a write-in candidate (guaranteed to lose).
1.3 The Democratic Party Approach
The Democratic Party will use its powers of hatred, fear, and chaos to promote their candidate. First will be hatred for those voters who believe in traditional (i.e., “obsolete”) values. Second will be fear of a “conservative”, by falsely claiming that a Republican will destroy the rights of racial minorities, re-institute slavery, round up gays and lesbians for persecution, and decimate the “safety net” (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the various welfare programs). Third, the Democrats will maximize chaos by claiming that all Republicans are “insurrectionists” that should be outlawed and imprisoned. That tactic will include legal challenges in the court (pressure from above), and riots in the streets by BLM and ANTIFA (pressure from below). The Democrats will claim that any Republican is a threat to democratic institutions. The Democrats will say it; the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the social media empires will continuously chant it; the artificial intelligence algorithms will enhance it; and the federal bureaucracy will confirm it. The people will believe it and vote accordingly … unless the Republicans find a backbone and figure out how to counter this Marxist propaganda.
