How the Democrats Win Big in 2024, Part 6

Four important events have occurred since the fifth installment (15 Feb 2024).  First, Governor Haley dropped out of the Republican primaries, and Mr. Trump has now secured the Republican nomination. Secondly, Mr. Biden has overcome the feeble opposition in the Democratic primaries, and is the presumptive Democratic nominee. Third, some of the charges against Mr. Trump in the Georgia RICO case have been dropped.  Fourth, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis was forced to fire her longtime romantic interest (Mr. Nathan Wade) as special prosecutor in the Georgia RICO case against Mr. Trump, although she remains on the case. Judge Scott McAfee made it obvious to all that Fani Willis is untouchable as are all black females who get elected.

This segment will address how the traditional “chaos and confusion” tactic is likely to play out in the 2024 election cycle.  It is in fact one of the oldest political tricks: create a problem, blame someone else, and promise to fix it if re-elected.  Of course, it never gets fixed because the creation of the problem is a result of actual deliberate policy.  The Democratic Party has successfully used this tactic for decades against black people in the large urban areas.  Now it is time to expand it to everyone, using the combination of half-truths, outright lies, changes in the definition of words, and intensive propaganda.

6.1        Immigration

At least 10,000,000 illegal aliens have been released into the U. S. since Jan 2021, most of them on fraudulent asylum claims.  They have been “paroled”, implying that they have been subjected to some legal ruling.  But in fact no such thing has occurred; they have simply been given a date to appear sometime in the next 5 years.  These 10,000,000 have now become a financial burden on many major cities because the Democratic leaders of those cities regard homelessness and hunger a privilege reserved only for U. S. citizens (especially veterans).  So public expenses increase, paid for by the U. S. citizens who are not receiving free housing in 5-star hotels or room service therefrom.

The Democratic Party tactic here is simple.  First, claim that the border is more secure than ever after Mr. Trump’s disastrous policies, i.e., blame someone else. Second, claim that the illegal aliens are actually here legally because the rules and definitions used in the immigration laws have been re-interpreted. Therefore the illegal aliens are “undocumented future citizens”, and anyone who claims otherwise is a xenophobic racist.  See how simple it is to spread mass confusion?

6.2        Crime

It was the Democratic Party that led the charge to de-fund the police while ridiculing them for being overzealous and racist.  It was the Democratic Party that engineered the reduced limitations on robbery, partly eliminated bail requirements, and initiated new rules of engagement that reduce effective policing.  Surprise, surprise, surprise: the criminal element (correctly) recognized these as incentives to commit more crimes.  So crime has increased.  Meanwhile, some crime statistics are down because the public has become inured to it; why report crimes if the police cannot or will not do anything about it owing to the three circumstances above?  The crime situation has gotten bad enough that some places (New York City) are using the National Guard to monitor the subway system.

The Democratic Party tactic here is straightforward: portray the chaos as normal.  First, claim the crime is down because the statistics say so.  Second, claim that the crime that does exist is due to the dereliction of duty on the part of the police.  Therefore, the crime policies are working, but more needs to be done: a) further reduction in the police forces; and b) additional relaxation of bail rules. Anyone who says otherwise is advocating for a fascist police state.

6.3        The Economy

The policies of the Biden administration have affected the economy in several ways.  First, the increased money supply (through deficit spending and issue of U. S. debt) has led to an inflationary cycle.  Secondly, the energy policies have led to an increase in fuel prices, which flows down into all other prices.  The Federal Reserve has done what it can to reduce the rate of inflation by reducing the demand for money, which is accomplished with high interest rates.  Every economist knows the prices lead wages: prices increase faster than wages in an inflationary cycle.  The net result of these is that many people are using credit cards to fund their daily expenses, and are taking second and third jobs to keep pace with the rising cost of living. The increased costs to businesses have also suppressed the natural job growth in a healthy economy.  Meanwhile, the stock market generally has done well because stock prices tend to emulate inflation with a 12 to 18-month time lag. 

The Democratic Party will have no trouble maximizing confusion about the economy with a combination of half-truths and outright lies.  First, the number of new jobs has increased and the official unemployment rate is low, but the other half of the story is that people are taking second and third part-time jobs to maintain their standard of living.  In fact, the total jobs in the U. S. did not recover from pre-pandemic levels until Jul 2022.  Second, use the tactic of large per-month job gains, and admit the other half by quietly revising them downward months later.  The Democrats will then proceed to cast blame.  First, brag about the stock market gains while claiming that those rich investors should be paying more in taxes. Second, admit that rents and mortgage payments are higher, while carefully omitting the role of higher interest rates; then claim that those are both due to greedy landlord and predatory banking practices.  Close the deal by pointing to “new jobs”, statistically low unemployment rates, and the declining inflation rate as proof that the economy is the strongest in human history. Anyone who says otherwise is a greedy capitalist with no empathy for the poor.

6.4        Education

The public schools have been invaded by Marxist theologians that have perpetuated Critical Race Theory, the Transgender Movement, the “1619 Project” and “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion”.   All of these are methods of indoctrination in the newest Marxist theories: a) all white people are racists; b) America is inherently flawed and deserving of destruction; c) physical biology is subject to opinion; and d) qualifications are based on race and sex alone  All of these serve to reduce actual education in the traditional subjects.  The teachers unions and many school boards have claimed that parents have no input as to what is being taught in the schools.  Parents have been investigated by federal agencies and accused of terrorism simply for objecting to these subjects in the public schools.  The problem is that many parents cannot afford to send their children to private schools, and are stuck with whatever the public schools offer.  The school boards are caught in the middle between voters (by whom they are elected), parents (for whom they attempt to serve), and the teachers unions (from whom they take orders).  The result is chaos in the public education system, which benefits the Democratic Party.

The Democrat Party’s approach to education is simple: portray the chaos as unwarranted opposition to settled debate and then promise to resolve it.  First, maintain the fiction that parents are the problem, while claiming to be the only advocates for the children.  Second, ridicule anyone who prefers a return to the traditional role of schools (teaching basic subjects without the diversions) as an out-of-touch Neanderthal.  The promise is that the Democratic Party will lead the way to a greater understanding of parents’ concerns, and do what is necessary to alleviate them.  The Democrats will say it; the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the social media empires will continuously chant it, and the federal bureaucracy will confirm it.  The people will believe it and vote accordingly … unless the Republicans find a backbone and figure out how to counter this political propaganda.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

How the Democrats Win Big in 2024, Part 5

Two important events have occurred since the fourth installment (26 Jan 2024).  First, Governor Haley lost to “none of the above” in the Nevada primary (which did not award electors) and Trump won the Nevada caucus (which did award electors). Secondly, Special Counsel Robert Hur released a report 5 Feb 2024 detailing Joe Biden’s theft and retention of classified documents between 1974 and 2017, but gave the excuse that Biden cannot be prosecuted because he is a nice old guy with a bad memory.  It should be obvious to all that the fix was in from the very beginning: the administrative state will always issue whatever whitewash is necessary to protect a Democrat.

In this fifth segment, I give some guesses regarding the approach that is likely to be taken by the administrative state in regard to the 2024 elections.  The main point is that the administrative state generally is led by Democrat operatives who desire bigger government with greater regulatory powers.  The administrative state most likely will conjure up anything against the Republicans and cover up anything that is inconvenient for the Democrats.  There will be false allegations that Republicans are being investigated for corruption, child molestation, wire fraud, tax fraud, etc.  It doesn’t matter that all are false; the point is to get the message out, endorsed by prominent current and former members of those organizations, as was done in 2020 with Hunter Biden’s laptop.  Anything to the contrary will be censored if possible and cited as “disinformation” as necessary.  

The general tactic is always the same: accuse, accuse, accuse until some of it sticks in the minds of the voters.  Here is a partial list of tactics that could be used by elements of the administrative state to further the cause of the Democratic candidates.  Keep in mind that the administrative state is mostly concerned with expanding its powers, and is opposed to anyone who is perceived as a threat to those powers

Department of Commerce

Bureau of Economic Analysis:

a. The working people are better off now than ever before in our history

b. The inflationary trend was due to Trump’s policies; it was Biden’s policies that ended it

c. Wages are growing faster now than they did under the Trump administration

Census Bureau:

a. Immigration is essential for American prosperity

b. Immigrants are a net benefit to the nation, especially after they are granted voting rights

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

a. The policies of the Republican will serve only to increase the rate at which the earth is drying out and heating up

b. It is the duty of the government to “encourage” people to save the planet by ending the fossil fuels that the Republicans love so much

Department of Defense

National Security Agency (NSA):

a. The Republican isolationist policy led to the rise of Adolf Hitler in the 1930’s, and we should not repeat that mistake

b. Trump’s policy of bankrupting Iran only made Iran more determined than ever to attack the U. S.; the wars in the Middle East are Trump’s doing

Defense Intelligence Agency:

a. Trump is involved in numerous conspiracies with foreign governments designed to turn America into a dictatorship

b. Trump is in turn allied with domestic white supremacy groups who will convince him to establish a Nazi-style dictatorship

Department of Education:

a. Republicans favor standardized tests only because they are written and graded by racists

b. Republicans want to go back to racial segregation of schools

c. Republicans want to end public education to guarantee a poorly educated and permanent economic underclass

d. Republicans want a system of guaranteeing taxpayer-funded education only for the upper classes

Department of Energy:

a. The Republicans are opposed to safe and economical wind and solar, and instead prefer either polluting fossil fuels or dangerous high-risk nuclear plants, both of which endanger the health of the poor, especially minorities

Department of Health and Human Services:

National Institute of Health:

a. Dr. Anthony Fauci is a national hero for his handling of COVID-19, and those who say otherwise are only undermining public health

b. The Democratic policies of lockdowns, masks, and mandatory vaccines during the pandemic saved humanity from the policies of the Republicans

Center for Disease Control:

a. The Republicans support high drug prices as engineered by “Big Pharma” that lead to suffering and death for the poor in order to favor their friends and financiers in the pharmaceutical business

b. The fentanyl problem is due to the Republican policy of letting “Big Pharma” do anything it wants to make money

c. Republicans will impose policies designed to persecute gays, lesbians, and transgender people, including forced sequestration in labor camps

d. Republicans want to abolish abortion nationwide, and impose mandatory life-without-parole for both women and doctors who receive and perform abortions

Department of Homeland Security

Customs and Border Protection:

a. The Southwest border with Mexico is the most secure in our history

b. Only racists oppose immigration

c. The Republicans are holding up legislation that would improve the immigration system

Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA):

a. FEMA is running out of money because the Republicans continue to advocate for energy policies that make adverse weather more likely and more frequent

b. The Republicans would abolish FEMA, since FEMA is essential to helping the poor and minorities during natural disasters

Department of Housing and Urban Development

a. The increase in rent is due to Republican policies that always benefit the landlords

b. The increase housing costs in general are due to high interest rates promoted by Republicans for the benefit of the banks (i.e., “Big Finance”)

c. Republicans are responsible for the policies that led to poverty of the inner cities, which has resulted in the high crime rates

Department of the Interior

a. Republicans are opposed to preserving nature; they would either pave over the national parks or hand them over to their real-estate developer allies

Department of Justice

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI):

a. The “January 6th” investigation is expanding, and as many as 500,000 Republicans are under investigation for conspiracy to steal the 2020 election

b. Many Republican operatives are being investigated for money-laundering and spying for our national adversaries

c. White Republicans (especially Catholics and Baptists) are the major internal security threat, owing to their opposition to abortion rights

d. Republicans are funding and supporting anarchist groups such as ANTIFA and their associates

Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE):

a. Only white racist Republicans think it is necessary for a citizen to own a gun; only the Democratic gun-control policies (regulation, prohibition, and excise taxes) can keep Americans safe

Department of Labor:

Occupational Safety and Health (OSHA):

a. Republicans are opposed to reasonable regulations designed to make workers safe

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):

a. Republican policies caused the Consumer Price Index to increase the fastest for the poor while suppressing their wages; thus a lower standard of living

b. Job creation and wage increases under Biden are the best it has been in our history

Department of State:

a. Russia attacked Ukraine as a result of a conspiracy between Trump and Putin

b. China is threatening Taiwan as a result of a conspiracy between Trump and Xi

c. North Korea has resumed testing missiles as a result of a conspiracy between Trump and Kim

d. HAMAS attacked Israel as a result of a conspiracy between Trump and unidentified terrorist groups in the Middle East

e. Iran continued to enrich uranium throughout Trump’s presidency but has stopped under Biden

f. Iran funded HAMAS, Hezbollah, and the Houthi’s using money provided to Iran during the Trump administration

Department of Transportation:

a. Republican policies are responsible for failing bridges and potholes

Department of the Treasury:

Office of Domestic Finance:

a. Republicans are responsible for: a) the high and growing national debt; b) high inflation; c) high interest rates; and d) decline in the regard for the U. S. dollar internationally

b. Republicans want to tax and regulate small businesses out of existence so as to reduce the competition faced by their large corporate friends

Internal Revenue Service:

a. Wealthy people in Republican States pay less in taxes than those in Democratic States because Republicans are greedy

b. Wealthy Republicans generally do not “pay their fair share”, but Democrats always do

c. A large number of Republican officeholders engage in questionable tax maneuvers that are currently being investigated

d. Republican low-tax policies injure the poor and middle class by depriving the government of revenue to assist them

Department of Veterans Affairs:

a. Republicans favor private health care for veterans to help “Big Pharma” and “Big Medical”, instead of the superior services provided by the VA

Equal Employment Opportunity Commission:

a. Republicans want to end affirmative action because they are afraid that “people of color” might succeed

Environmental Protection Agency:

a. Republican policies will: a) destroy the environment; b) make most of the U. S. uninhabitable; and c) lead to the extinction of many types of animals, starting with the polar bears and penguins. 

b. Republican environmental policies are invented by anti-science lunatics who deny that the climate is changing, and want only to reward their rich fossil-fuel friends with greater profits at the expense of the people, especially the poor

Central Intelligence Agency:

a. Republicans generally are stooges in the service of Putin, Xi, Maduro, and Kim

b. All those who have made negative reports about Biden or any other Democrat are being investigated as foreign agents

Federal Election Commission:

a. Many local Republican election officials are conspiring to steal the 2024 election by altering election rules without legislative action

b. Republicans are implementing ways to suppress the voters in Democratic areas

c. Republicans want to go to paper ballots because it is easier to stuff the ballot boxes than to alter voting machines

Federal Reserve

a. Republican policies always favor “Big Finance”, and if elected, Americans will have perpetual high interest rates

b. Republicans want to abolish the Federal Reserve and return the banking system to the “wild west”, where only Republicans and their friends will prosper

Social Security Administration:

a. The Republicans want to abolish Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid) and force the elderly to beg on the streets for charity


The administrative state bureaucrats and Democrats will say it; the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the social media empires will continuously chant it.  The people will believe it and vote accordingly … unless the Republicans find a backbone and figure out how to counter this political propaganda.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

How the Democrats Win Big in 2024, Part 4

Since the third installment (16 Jan 2024), Governor DeSantis has left the Republican presidential campaign just prior to the New Hampshire primary; he endorsed Mr. Trump.  Governor Hutchinson ended his campaign immediately after the Iowa caucus. Their exit leaves Governor Nikki Haley as the main rival to Mr. Trump and she now has what she always wanted: a two-person race.  Mr. Trump defeated Governor Haley in the New Hampshire primary by a margin of 55 to 44.

This fourth installment discusses the Democratic Party’s approach to energy policy during the campaign.

The Biden administration adopted energy policies that reversed all of Trump’s policies.  Trump’s policy was overall energy independence via domestic production, which was achieved for the first time in 2019, accomplished partly by moderating regulation and partly by innovations in the energy industry. The U. S. has remained a net energy exporter since 2019; “energy” in this context including oil, natural gas, and refined products.  Biden’s first energy policy was to reverse Trump’s oil production policy: Biden decreased production by reducing the amount of federal land that could be leased; and also imposed greater regulations on private leases.  This initially caused a drop in supply and thus an increase in prices especially as the Wuhan virus faded.  That in turn had two effects.  First, the increase in oil prices made oil production very profitable for Russia, which permitted Russia to finance its war against Ukraine.  Secondly, Biden’s policy increased the domestic cost of energy, which increased the costs and prices of most consumer goods in the U. S.  This contributed to what is commonly called  “inflation” and the increase in the Consumer Price Index (cost of living), as shown previously in Part 3.

Domestic crude oil production has since increased even higher than pre-pandemic levels, owing to efforts made by the oil and gas industries.  Figure 4-1 shows the overall domestic crude oil production, imports, and exports for the period 2015 to 2022. 

Figure 4-1: Crude Oil Domestic Production, Imports, and Exports, 2015-2022

Biden’s second energy policy was to end construction of the various pipelines what would have brought Canadian oil to the U. S. and thus would have lowered prices. That has led to a stagnation in the oil imports from Canada (our friendly reliable neighbor), and has increased imports from other nations not-so-friendly.  Figure 4-2 shows a sample of how oil imports have changed in the past 9 years; notice that imports from Russia increased dramatically 2021, until the invasion of Ukraine.  Imports from Venezuela resumed in 2023 after a three-year hiatus; we have even begun to import oil from Iran (albeit a small amount).

Figure 4-2: Oil Imports from Selected Nations, 2015-2023

Biden’s first two policies caused an overall increase in crude oil prices at a time when domestic demand was rising as the nation came out of the Democrat-inspired depression during the Wuhan virus pandemic.  Figure 4-3 shows the average price of crude oil between 2017 and 2023. The average price per barrel from Jan 2017 to Feb 2020 (i.e., the Trump administration prior to the Wuhan virus) was $60.67. The average price between Mar 2021 and Nov 2023 (i.e., the Biden administration after the Wuhan virus) was $84.04.  The resulting increase in oil prices proved beneficial to Russia; at $50 to $60 per barrel, Russia can break even; at $85 per barrel, he can afford to begin and continue the war in Ukraine.  Thus the Biden energy policy was an indirect cause of a foreign policy problem, which he has thus far failed to mitigate.

Figure 4-3: Average Crude Oil Price, $/Barrel, 2015-2023

Naturally the increase in crude oil prices increased the retail prices of gasoline and diesel, as shown on Figure 4-4.  Note that these are nationwide averages; a few States have very low excise taxes on fuels and some (such as New York and California) have very high taxes.  There was a time in the summer of 2022 when California residents were faced with gasoline prices upwards of $6.50 per gallon.

Figure 4-4: Average Retail Prices of Gasoline and Diesel, 2015-2023

Biden’s third policy was to deplete the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in an effort to mitigate the first two.  Figure 4-5 shows the status of the Strategic Oil Preserve between 2015 and 2023.  It does not appear that his reduction in the Reserve made much difference in the retail price of fuels.  Here we have a reduction in a supply reserved for emergencies that accomplished nothing.  The Biden administration has recently begun to replenish the SPR, but no schedule has been published to indicate when it will be back to the previous levels under Presidents Obama and Trump.

Biden’s fourth energy policy was to promote legislation to increase subsidies for electric cars in order to “save the planet”.  We are discovering the hard way that electric cars are not ready for prime time.  First, they are difficult to maintain and are less reliable in very hot and very cold climates (i.e., the desert Southwest in the summer, and the entire northern part of the U. S. in the winter).  Secondly, they generally cost more than gas-powered cars.  Third, it is difficult to travel long distances due to the scarcity of charging stations and the time required for a re-charge.  Fourth, an efficient home charging system may cost up to $3,000; an extra expense not necessary with gas cars.  Fifth, it is risky to buy a used EV because the remaining battery life cannot be accurately estimated.  The major auto manufacturers now realize that the public doesn’t want them regardless of the subsidies, and they are incurring large losses on production.  You can be certain that those car manufacturers will be bailed out for their losses, since they increased production at the instigation of the federal government.  Thus another expense for the taxpayers with no benefit realized. 

Figure 4-5: Volume of Strategic Oil Reserve, 2015-2023

So the Democratic Party’s plan for the election can be summarized in a few points. First, Biden will use every trick he can to subsidize gasoline, including another depletion of the Strategic Oil Reserve.  Biden can then falsely claim that “gas prices are down 30% since their peak in 2022”, conveniently ignoring the fact that the Biden administration’s policies caused them to increase from $2.25 per gallon to $5.00 per gallon in 2022.  Second, the increase in oil prices and retail gasoline will be blamed on “price-gouging” by the evil sinister oil companies, “corporate greed” in general, and the “COVID-19 emergency”.  Third, the continuing demand for gas cars and rejection of the electric vehicles will be blamed on those “insurrection-supporting” Republicans who selfishly refuse to give up their traditional (i.e., reliable) cars.  Fourth, the Democratic candidates will claim that all is well: domestic energy production has increased; that Democratic polices are “saving the planet,” and the price of gas is lower than its peak.  Thus the “catastrophe caused by Trump” has been mitigated by the superior policies of the Democrats; the “America First” movement was inherently wrong and it is now a bad memory.  Thus, the future looks better than ever as soon as Democrats secure the elections.  The Democrats will say it; the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the social media empires will continuously chant it, and the federal bureaucracy will confirm it.  The people will believe it and vote accordingly … unless the Republicans find a backbone and figure out how to counter this political propaganda.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

How the Democrats Win Big in 2024, Part 3

Since the second installment (10 Jan 2024), Mr. Ramaswamy has left the Republican presidential campaign following the caucus in Iowa.  Mr. Trump won that election decisively: trump at 51%; DeSantis at21%; Haley at 19%, Ramaswamy at 8% and Hutchinson at 1%. Mr. Ramaswamy’s exit leaves Governor Nikki Haley and Governor Ron DeSantis as the main rivals to Mr. Trump, followed by Governor Asa Hutchinson.

This third installment discusses the Democratic Party’s approach to the economy during the campaign.

Congress gave the Federal Reserve (the U. S. central bank) three objectives when setting monetary policy: a) low inflation; b) low unemployment; and c) high economic growth.  Every rational economist knows that any two of these (if the Federal Reserve is both honest and lucky) can be achieved only by sacrificing the other one, as detailed elsewhere [1].  In practice, the Federal Reserve is doing well if it accomplishes one objective and part of a second.  These are the three common metrics by which the economy is characterized, and are therefore the three main economic political talking points.

3.1        Inflation

The spending polices and high deficits since 2021 have led to a large increase in monetary inflation, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Figure 3.1-1 shows the official statistics:

Figure 3.1-1: Inflation Data per CPI, 2017-2023

The annual inflation rate (last column) averaged about 2% during Mr. Trump’s term, but the spending under Mr. Biden caused it to increase to 7% in 2021.  The highest monthly rate during Mr. Trump’s term was 2.9% in the summer of 2018; it increased to 9.1% under Mr. Biden in Jun 2022.  This doesn’t look good, but Democrats will adopt the tactic of confusing the public by making inflation appear beneficial.  It is likely that the inflation created by the Biden administration (and Congress) will have been suppressed by the Federal Reserve down to about 3% annual by the Nov 2024 election.  (It was accomplished by increasing interest rates, which flowed down to increasing mortgage rates.)  The Democrats will claim that Biden “tamed inflation”, thus falsely implying that inflation was high under Trump.  The Democrats will also point to the stock market averages.  The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 30,306 on 31 Dec 2020; it closed at 37,689 on 29 Dec 2023; an increase of 24.4% relative to 2020. The S&P 500 closed at 3,756 on 31 Dec 2020 and at 4,769 on 29 Dec 2023, an increase of 27% relative to 2020.   What the Democrats won’t say is that stock prices follow a similar trend to other prices: they sometimes increase during an inflationary period, as is the case here.  They won’t mention that both indices fell dramatically in 2022.  Mr. Biden will have no difficulty ordering the Bureau of Labor Statistics to modify the composition of the Consumer Price Index to make it look like the overall cost of living is falling.  The Democrats will point to increasing family income, conveniently ignoring the fact that wages generally increase during an inflationary period, and that many people have had to take second jobs to make ends meet.

3.2        Unemployment

Figure 3.2-1 shows the national unemployment rate (%) for the Trump and Biden periods.  Notice that the unemployment rate was about 5.1% at the beginning of Trump’s term, and had declined to about 3.4% in Dec 2019, just prior to the onset of China’s gift to the world, the Wuhan virus.

Figure 3.2-1: Unemployment Rate, 2017-2023

Notice also the large spike in the unemployment rate in the summer of 2020, when the Governors of many States (especially in Democratic ones) imposed lockdowns on their respective populations.  As the Wuhan virus faded and the Democrats were forced to give up their arbitrary powers, many of those who became unemployed in 2020 have now found other jobs.  The Democrats will claim that the Biden administration’s policies have “brought America back from the Trump-induced economic depression” conveniently ignoring that it was done mostly by Democrat Governors.  The Democrats will cite the continuously lowering unemployment rate between 2021 and 2024, conveniently ignoring: a) most of the jobs that were created during the Biden administration simply replaced those lost during the Wuhan pandemic; b) many people have to work two jobs to get by due to the monetary inflation caused by the increased spending by Congress as promoted by Mr. Biden; and c) many of the new jobs are low-wage part-time work.  No one in the mainstream media will take the time to analyze the data to inform their viewers of the actual state of unemployment (i.e., what kind of jobs, seasonal or not, part-time or not, government or private sector, etc.).  It is highly likely that the fastest growing employment segment during the Biden administration is in government jobs. 

3.3        Growth

Growth is measured by the U. S. Bureau of Economic Statistics as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Figure 3.3-1 shows the GDP, along with the M2 money supply and the velocity of money [2].  The GDP values are not the GDP for each quarter; they are estimates of the annual GDP issued each quarter.  For example, the total GDP was $25,462.7 B for the entire year 2022; the chart shows just under $25,000 in the first quarter of 2022 (i.e., the estimated annual value based on data in the first quarter of 2022).  The M2 money supply is a metric issued by the Federal Reserve; it is approximately the total supply of money exclusive of large time deposits [3].  The velocity of money is defined as the nominal GDP divided by the M2 money stock.  It has for the past two decades declined from about 2 to about 1.5.  A rapid decline in the money velocity indicates a rapid increase in the money supply; and values less than about 1.4 indicate that money supply is growing at rates in excess of historical norms.

Figure 3.3-1: GDP, Money Supply, and Velocity of Money, 2017-2023

It is obvious from Figure 3.3-1 that economic growth was stable between 2017 and 2019: the velocity of money was within historical norms at 1.45 or so; and the rate of GDP was increasing slightly faster than the rate of M2 money supply.  Then in 2020, the Wuhan virus led Congress and the Trump administration to inject a large amount of new money into the system (via the CARES Act), corresponding to a rapid decline in the velocity of money.  By the beginning of 2021, the GDP was back where it was at the beginning of 2020 after suffering a large decline in the summer of 2020 due to the economic lockdowns imposed in many places. Congress and the Biden administration continued to increase the money supply until mid-2022, when it began to decline.  Meanwhile the velocity of money remained below normal and the GDP increased steadily between 2021 and 2023.  The increase in the GDP is a symptom of monetary inflation, due primarily to the increase in the money supply (recall that V = GDP/M2).  The Democrats will use this data to make two false claims.  First, that GDP was stagnant during the last year of the Trump administration because of his favor-the-rich policies, ignoring the fact that it was due to an incorrect lockdown response to the Wuhan virus.  Second, they will claim that GDP increased only 14.2% during Trump’s four years (i.e., from $19.2 T to $22.0 T) due to his faulty economic policy; but increased by 25.3% (i.e., from $22.0 T to $27.6 T) in only three years under Biden due to his great policies.  The numbers are correct; the falsehood lies in the fact the growth in GDP under Biden is due to the increase of the money supply that led to inflation, which led to higher prices, and the resulting increase in the cost of living (cf. CPI per Figure 3.1-1).

Figure 3.3-1 shows one other thing of importance; namely the decline in the money supply after mid-2022.  This may indicate a deflationary trend, which was one of the reasons the recession of 1929 became the Great Depression of the 1930’s [4].  It is well known that prices tend to lead wages; in other words, price effects are felt before wage adjustments occur.  In an inflationary trend (where the money supply is increasing), prices go up faster than wages.  That is bad for wage-earners because their current wages do not buy as much until they get a raise later.  The situation is similar for a deflationary trend (when the money supply is decreasing).  Prices lead wages; thus prices will fall faster while wages remain stable.  That seems to be a good trend, but it can operate only temporarily.  The reason is: as prices fall and wages remain stable, businesses that are labor-intensive will see a decline in profits, which will force them to lay off workers.  Thus a deflationary cycle will generally lead to higher unemployment (the central problem of the 1930’s).

3.4        Summary

As you can see, the Democrats have plenty of false notions of economics but plenty of statistics to make their policy appear beneficial.  The Democrats will say it; the mainstream media, academia, Hollywood, and the social media empires will continuously chant it, and the federal bureaucracy (including the Federal Reserve) will confirm it.  The people will believe it and vote accordingly … unless the Republicans find a backbone and figure out how to counter this Marxist propaganda.


1.  Edward D. Duvall, The Control and Manipulation of Money, Queen Creek, AZ: Fremont Valley Books, 2023, pp. 80, 81, 162-168, 395-414.  It is available as a free pdf at:

It is available in print at:

2. The source data for Figure 3.3-1 is as follows:

a. GDP: Vintage History of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Estimates; Bureau of Economic Analysis,; then select “Previously Published Estimates”, this provides file gdp-gdi-vintage-history.xlsx; I have used the 28 Dec 2023 revised estimates.

b. Velocity of Money: Federal Reserve at, Velocity of M2 Money Stock, series M2V, file = M2V.xls

c. M2 Money Stock: Federal Reserve at

3. op. cit., Duvall, p. 601

4. op. cit., Duvall, pp. 439-441

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »